The Rugby Muscle Podcast

Predicting the Quarter Finals of the Rugby World Cup

TJ Jankowski Season 2 Episode 36

In this video, I'm predicting the quarter finals of the Rugby World Cup 2023. Who'll make it to the semis? 


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All right, everybody. Let's preview the rugby world cup quarterfinals. I'm really excited. Let's get into it. if you're new here, my name is TJ. I'm the guy behind rugby muscle, rugby muscle. We do strength and condition for all you amateur rugby players. So if that's something that interests you, links will be in the description at some point below, check that stuff out. If that interests you, if you want to get fit, if you want to get in the best shape for rugby and fit that around your life. Awesome. If you want to just enjoy it, these quarterfinals, then let's do that right now. Actually, we can't enjoy them right now. I wish we could today. We're just going to preview them. And I'm doing this preview early. Yes. Kind of because I'm really excited, but also because I'm traveling. So, um, the teams aren't quite out yet, but I still thought, uh, you know, We got to get this out there and I thought why not do my Superbrew predictions Live as I'm recording this be quite a cool way to preview it So what we have on our hand is go back to the other one though Because I want to overview all four of these games first. So what we've got here is four Epic games mate. We have got like something Special here. We've got four two matches that teams if they win Like, they'll call their Rugby World Cup already a success. Uh, two matches with teams that if they lose, they will call their Rugby World Cup a huge failure. This, I guess, is the part where that draw isn't fair. We kind of knew that we were going to get here. It was exciting getting here, but now we are here, we sort of saw this coming, you know? Um, I'm not sure if we saw all four matches being Northern Hemisphere vs. Southern Hemisphere, which is... Very interesting, especially for the guys that commented on my preview from a couple months back saying that Whatever happens Southern Hemisphere are going to dominate. Well, I Don't this has never happened before in a World Cup where the Northern Hemisphere have made Or have topped every single group, which is it's interesting. It's not that interesting though, because You know nor you caught like I said this in previous videos summer in like grouping all of the Northern Hemisphere teams together It's not fair. It's definitely not fair in Ireland and France considering how good they are like if you're gonna compare them to England That's just not fair. So like yeah, I think It's interesting to see but could we get a northern hemisphere whitewash into the semifinal or could we get a southern hemisphere? whitewash Into the semi final. I don't know. I don't, I don't really care. I'm not, I'm not that aligned. What I do care about, the thing that I hope for the most in these four games, right, is that we don't, please, please let's not get a stupid red card and have that, like, affect the game. That will be tragic if that happens. So I'm really hoping that doesn't happen. And my prediction is gonna be that that might, but we're gonna, we're gonna go for predictions thinking that... We're going to take each game separately and assume no, no red cards. We're going to assume that everyone is being squeaky clean and we just watch some awesome rugby. Two very different sets of semifinals. So first off, we've got, uh, Wales v Argentina. That kicks us off. And we've, well, I mean, what we've got here is two, two sides that had differing opinions going into the World Cup and has have. Gone kind of different ways They've got two. We've got two very very very savage savage savvy coaches in warren gatland and Hey, michael checker. I've got a fly trying to go on my camera here. Um I really like both warren gatland and michael checker. I think they're two guys that really do A very good job of getting the passion and getting the most out of their teams. We've got two very Very passionate teams and so far, I think Wales so far on this side of the draw look like the best of out of all of the teams to make that could go further than maybe a semifinal, but then again, it's so hard to judge because who have they played? They've played. They beat Fiji, but like you saw what happened to feed you this this past weekend. They, you know, they looked good against Australia, but Australia team are monumentally You know underperforming and poor and They did a good job of putting georgia to the sword again, but again, georgia disappointed But can you say that like can you have it on both ways that like? These everyone facing wales are just poor no, I don't think that's fair to wales at all But it is something that must be considered. They haven't had the the group stage that say Scotland had, you know, and so you do have to judge it by their opposition. But what they've done with their opposition has been very good. They've been very impressive. They haven't made it like just scrappy games. They seem to have played good rugby in getting to their school. They took their tries very well. This is something that I think Wales have done a really good job of is taking any points that are on offer. Um, the opposite to what Argentina have done a bit, but I think Argentina, after that terrible performance against England, since that, they've looked a little bit better. They've looked like they've just switched, especially against Samoa and Japan, they seem just to switch it on when they needed to. They never, like that Japan game, like, I was cheering for Japan because it's a, you know, not that I didn't want Argentina to go through, but it would have just been cool to see that upset. But they never really, I never really thought that they were going to win. And um, yeah, Argentina just kept them at arm's reach. So that they could always, uh, stay in control of that game or score tries when they really looked like they needed to. They'll have a lot of emotion going into this one. And I know that Michael Cheka is big into coaching on his emotion, like put, he's very emotional with his coaching. You can see what he's done. Um. Yeah, I don't know. I think this game is if this game is very open and it plays at that fast tempo, maybe like what, um, Wales versus Fiji was like, and maybe even to an extent how Wales just put Australia to the sword. I think that's how Argentina can win this. They've got a really good set of backs that can Can really slice teams open and if Wales get put on the back foot, I can see them doing that. But I can also see Wales really grinding out this win. Interesting battle might be... The only one I can really see that's going to be interesting would be Lewis Rees Samet against Mateo Carreras. Just two absolute speed demons. Um, that'll be interesting. Not two guys that are really known for their kick chasing, which in close, high level rugby, a lot of this stuff comes down to. But two... Awesome talents that can take tries from nowhere. So we'll see I think it's going to be most important up front Who wins that front football who wins the breakdown area? Both teams go quite hot and cold on this but for this one I guess i've got to make a decision after all this now and I will back wales to win it Will they win it by more than a score? No, they'll probably win it by a score They'll win it by five wales by five and we're gonna Can I, can I reserve the right to not lock this in just now? Cause it is early as I'm recording this. Maybe I'll change one. But for this video, let's say, ah, go on then we'll just lock it in. Now we've got probably the, the most fun fixture of the weekend. I would say, um, Ireland against New Zealand. This, uh, this is going to be either, um, like. Either way, it's going to be epic, but this could be Ireland finally stepping out of their shadow. Like, I mean, they're not, they're the best team in the world right now, but this is them really showing themselves on the world stage as the dominant force. Maybe along with South Africa in world rugby and New Zealand go home packing and maybe change the face of the future of world rugby because These past five or so years, you've seen where before New Zealand consistently dominated, uh, under 20s rugby and all youth rugby and all of that. Now you're seeing a slight, slow changing of the guard. And now, the fact that, like, Ireland are going into this as clear favourites, right? That's absolutely insane to me. New Zealand are, like, never underdogs. But in this game, I don't, like... You can say New Zealand, you think New Zealand are going to win. But there's no way you can say that you think New Zealand are favourites. Like, it's just, that's, and that's, in my whole life, I don't think that's, I don't think that's ever happened. So, yeah, crazy times. But Ireland absolutely deserve to be the favourites. Um, I'm going to have to wake up early for this, uh, which is going to be frustrating. We'll see how we'll figure this out. But, um, I will give a reaction early towards, I think. I think. My adrenaline is going to be pumping no matter what. This is going to be intense. Um, New Zealand, if they get Tyrell Lomax and Ethan De Groot playing and they get a good 60 minutes out of them, I think they have a good chance. I think that chance goes up even more if Steve Hansen, Steve Hansen? It's not Steve Hansen. Who's the, what's the bloody, who's the coach now? Why have I space on him? Fozzie, of course I didn't even look it up. Ian Foster. If he makes a big decision, right? And he drops an out of form Bowden Barrett and puts in Damian McKenzie, I think they have an even bigger chance. Because Damian McKenzie right now can do things that probably not, no one else on the planet can do. Bowden Barrett just, he was there. He was unreal a few years back. Now he's, he's not, he's just not quite there. So if, if they play D Mac at fullback, I think they have an even bigger chance. If those things don't happen, if we don't get a quality 60 minutes out of DeGroote and Lomax, and if Bowden's just on his, like, not on his form as he has been recently, I can see Ireland really taking it. Uh, to New Zealand and really potentially even run away with this, like, kind of what they did against Scotland. Maybe not as brutal, but something close. I could see that absolutely happening. And then even if all those things do happen, if we do get DMACC and DeGroote, like, I still see Ireland as the favourites. And, you know, even if I could see New Zealand giving that early storm, kind of similar to the way they did with France. Um, where they, they put on a couple of scores early, they look like they're in control. I can still see, um, Ireland just, just keeping it together, not panicking. Knowing their class, knowing how they want to play. And clawing their way back into their game and, and still taking it. Um, New Zealand might have a few, you know, tricks up their sleeve with Joe Smith. But, um, this isn't the same Irish squad that Joe Smith had. This is an Irish squad that gets so much. Out of all of their players, they're such a well managed squad. I said this in the last video, like, If you consider, for example, the New Zealanders that they have in their team. So you've got James Lowe, you've got Bundy Aki, and you've got Jameson Gibson Park. Those three players probably aren't making the All Blacks squad. Like, squad. I mean, maybe now. But even now, if you were picking like a Barbarians team, for example. You'd probably take some of the flashier kiwis, but at the end of the day, all of those players, you wouldn't take any of those Kiwis into France. Right? You w you, I mean France, God dammit. Uh, I'm too excited. I'm talking all over the place. Uh, you wouldn't take any of those players in those Kiwi players in the Irish team like that. Irish team is exactly where you want it. I don't think there's any, there's partly any players aside from maybe DuPont, but even then, There's hardly any players that you would sub out for Ireland and that's just shows shows their depth shows how Good of a team that they are and shows that they're deservedly The number one ranked team and the favorite for this game um such a well managed squad like I think That's what they should I hinted to this earlier in another video how? Ireland have constructed this team. It's not just because of lenster. It's because of how they want to play their rugby is is clear across the board. It's clear across all of the provinces, all of the schools, all of the coaching in all of the provinces and all of the schools and they're all singing to the exact same hymn sheet. You know, they don't have mavericks randomly that don't suit their style of play that you've kind of got to play anyway. Everyone is world class at the exact job that Ireland want them to do. And I think that's That's unreal. And that's, and it still allowed Irish rugby to develop in all, you know, all of the provinces, right? Recently you've had all the provinces have success, even Connacht. And this year you had Munster win the URC, you know, so I think there is something. Now, with that being said, right, a lot of this Irish squad are from Leinster. And a lot of these Leinster players now have a bit of a history of choking, right? And this, I'm not saying, I haven't even mentioned at this point the Irish quarterfinal hoodoo. I don't think it exists. I don't think any of the current players give a flying shit about this, this, this curse. I don't think it, I don't think they're bothered about it at all. They're just bothered about smashing New Zealand. With all of that being said... I do, I do think that this is a huge game with so much riding on it. And we've seen Leinster lose these games. And in games where you think that they should not lose. They should not have lost to Munster. They should not have lost to La Rochelle. Did they lose to La Rochelle twice? Yeah, they did. Like, you know. I don't think that's going to happen though this time. I do think Ireland are going to win this. I think they're going to win it by more than a score. I think they're going to come away with it by let's say 12. Um, let's log that in. Uh, yeah, I, I, I just think they're just too good right now. There's not like the only right way I'd be predicting New Zealand is on some sort of feeling. The facts are what the facts are. And this Irish team, uh, Factually winning so many games that you can't pick against them. You can't pick against them And then from that game we have sunday's games. I'll have to be staying up late at night I think for this one, uh, england v fiji now as an englishman Obviously, I want england to win but I it would be awesome to see fiji make a semi final just for Just for rugby and just for fiji, you know, think about that like a country that has less than A million people live in there. That's crazy to, to have them make the, the, semi final of the World Cup. Is so cool. It's so cool. But, I think no matter what, Fiji are just getting stronger and stronger. They don't have, like, I've been complaining this whole World Cup on this YouTube channel about the tier 2 nations and their lack of games. Now, I do think Fiji Have already succeeded not in that they're gonna get loads of games and they're gonna get teams going on a big tour there They could do but They've succeeded in that like they're gonna keep growing as long as the French leagues are growing They're gonna keep growing because they're gonna keep having their players their best players Go out there get top level top 14 experience. Even Prodido is a high level Maybe even the NRL as well. You consider that like they've their players are going everywhere. They're playing world class rugby and they're becoming world class rugby players and then they're going back to Fiji and showing that like you look at through this Fiji squad. Yes. They've got a lot of drew sticking through there that you know show there's they give them a level of unity, but really what makes this Fiji team stand out are the standout players. Look at there's two centres, Niatha Levu, um, And I mean, Raja Raja or to us over if you look at all three of those, there's a French history there with Raja Raja. There's also, um, NRL like that's, that's a really good avenue for them to make their best avenue really to make a real go at this and have a team that could actually make. Um, a semifinals or even a final or even, I mean, dare I say it, win a World Cup. They could do that if they continue down this development line. I think this is the best way. Aside from potentially some sporting billionaire that decides that, like, Major League Rugby ain't gonna make you no money. And if you're gonna lose rugby having fun, why don't you invest in this Fiji team? Why don't you invest in the Druur and, like, build them up and build them, like, a world class training camp? And... Get them a world like a couple more world class coaches in and just have them like that poof That would be cool And you could sell that like you wouldn't have to you wouldn't lose your money doing that you could sell that to some some sort of corporate sponsorship that would be That would be cool man. And that's that's what Fiji could potentially do like there'd be like the I Get not quite like too long. Who would they be like that? I guess it'd be like the Harlem Globetrotters Let me know in the comments below. Is there anyone, is there any other sport where a team's like that? Where it's just Like all homegrown players and With just so much talent Maybe like the Kenyan in running. I don't know. I can't think of anything else, but You get my point Fiji They're awesome. Do I think they're gonna win this game? I mean, this is the only game where The two teams have already played this year and obviously, um, obviously Fiji won that one But at the time of recording the squads aren't out and I I don't even think that matters too much I mean if we look at the if we're looking at this from an england point of view Um, if there was a game for marcus smith to start fullback It's this one. Uh, I don't think Fiji are gonna bother playing a massive kicking game and try and win that, like, win the game that way. I do think that they're gonna try and match him up front, but I don't think they're gonna kick to, like, to the point where you're gonna really need what Stewart offers over what Smith could offer. So I could see that, like, I could absolutely see that. I could also see them just going forward, Farrell. If they do so, I think Orly Lawrence, or maybe Joe Marchand, or even maybe Elliot Daly needs to start at 13. We're just not seeing much from Tuolagi, he's just not put it to like, Tuolagi is the hope of a player that he once was, but he's not that player anymore. I think he and also, with the Fijians, the backline, I think Tuolagi and Stewart both are defensively very weak, where You need to be, if you can just monitor them really well, like what Wales did where they, they, they did like over 250 tackles. I think like that's how you beat Fiji. Just making your tackles, just being really solid in your defensive line and then nailing your set piece and taking your chances. And I do think whale, I mean England had been building towards that. I do think that's the, the sort of England performance that could come for this game. I do think that, uh, you know, England forwards need to step up. They've, they've been rubbish so far. Um, well, no, they were epic in that Argentina game. They need something. England needs something. Um, I've got to get up early. So if I'm doing that for this one, um, I don't know if I've got to get up early. I don't know. It doesn't matter. Uh, England. I can see England potentially keeping them at arm's, arm's, uh, reach, or arm's length, kind of the same way Wales did. I do see, actually, I see that being kind of how this game goes, but maybe not even as open. Um, I think Fiji could potentially also be down from this past week's loss. I know that's kind of, you've heard Ben Ryan talk about it. I've seen it with Fijians, like, if they lose, they don't get angry. They... They want to enjoy their rugby and obviously last week they, I mean, who knows? Who knows? They'll go into this with still with full confidence, but if England get up and put their heads down, England take this. I think, do think England take this. They'll have an unbelievable level of analysis from the past. Um, from the past fixture and I think that they will come good. I do, I hope there's something in what I said in the previous video that England have. Some level of fatigue from training really hard these past three weeks and that, that fatigue dissipates. I don't think they've been going harder than their strength and conditioning in the middle of a World Cup. But I do think that they've just been overly sloppy and I think this is the one where they put it together. I hope this is the one they put it together. And then when they do, like, as a reward, they get the winner of this game. Ah, so they get to lose to either France or South Africa. Who is that going to be? What a game to finish off this weekend. This one is like so hard to predict. Um, like this has the potential to be everything like that South Africa Island pool game, except that the loser goes home. That is really sad. Like one of these two teams is going, that is heartbreaking to know that one of these two teams as epic of. You know, last couple months that they've had year or so they've had building into this. This is everything One of these teams is going home at the quarterfinals. Oh France are not gonna get bullied South Africa like They're not gonna let the French dictate this game The way the kind of the way that you saw the French dictate the New Zealand game so Where's where's this game gonna be played so you've got Both teams are going to carry hard through the centres. I think that's obvious. You've got D'Alanda, you've got Dante. You've got, um, Oh, is Locano? I am going to play in this one. Oh, I didn't even think of that. That could, no, because he's just going to come up against, um, Gael Ficu. So, that doesn't really, that cancels each other out. Um, Both teams are going to be ridiculously tough at the breakdown missing a hooker with um, france missing march on although Not doing as bad replacement with peter malvaco. He's been playing amazing. Um Obviously south africa are missing malcolm marx Again bong in monamby Just as good although then coming off. You've got two players that have been looking good in their club rugby with uh, bugaree and Uh, I'm going to not waste too much time thinking about who the other guy, the older fella, I've completely spaced on him. Yeah, let me know his name in the comments below, the South African back row hooker. Who's gonna come in. I think they're gonna give those guys as minimal time as possible. Otherwise, through the breakdown, both teams are going to be really competitive. I see lots of turnovers if teams don't really secure those rucks. I don't see either team getting really easy quick ball. Um, I do see both teams, with the players that they have, creating big opportunities out wide out of seemingly nothing. We've seen the French do it a lot. We've seen the likes of Cheslin Colby and the rest of the back three. Damien Willems are just setting up something from absolutely nothing. Curley Aronson. Yeah, both teams can go from nowhere to coast to coast to score tries. So, where is the separation in this? Um, French have home advantage, that's something. French potentially have Dupont coming back. But then South Africa potentially have Pollard coming back. I don't think either of those two things matters. Like, you've got the French who had Luku and Jalibert in sync, playing really well together. It wasn't like they needed... DuPont to boss this game. They didn't need a Petit General. They, they had Jalibar bossing it and, and they looked really well. Good. Against a weak Italy team, but still. And then LeBok and South Africa. Yes, LeBok didn't make all of his kicks, but I would, I would back either him or, uh, if Faf the Clerk plays him to, like, whoever they're going to decide to kick will be fine. Don't see that being an issue. If they, if, if. South Africa do have Pollard and he's on sync like that is a big boost and if obviously France have DuPont playing and he's back to his best, that's a boost. I don't think that's everything. Genuinely, I think this game gets solved and won or lost at the line out because both teams heavy, rely heavy on their kicking game and heavy on their chase game. So, the one team that has that freedom of being able to kick. Deep and be okay with it going out. Because their line out is functioning really well. Wins this game. Now. Oh, ho, ho, ho, ho. Look at the, look at the locks these two teams have. Look at the, and the back rows. The height on their back rows. This, this is the toughest one to predict. And, even though, Every game in this quarter final can go either way. This one, I just have no idea. The team that wins the line out is going to win this game. Yeah, South Africa are going to win this game. South Africa by five. And that, oh, does that, does that put a little pin in the balloon of this World Cup with the French finishing? Oh. Got an alert to say that was the correct pick TJ now. Yeah, I think that's it I can't keep thinking about this anymore South Africa will win this In my pretty office. What I say will South I'm predicting South Africa to win. Give me them. I'm not clearly not confident in this pig But I'm slightly more confident in this than I am in France winning and that's purely I don't know what it's based off of. I think it's just, I think they, I think I can see South Africa getting top of the line out. And that being the end of France's World Cup and like, I think I want France to win kind of because of how cool their fans have been and how good a World Cup this has been and it would be nice to see them get in. But then again, I don't want them playing England. They, they smashed England by 50 points in the Six Nations. Maybe they'll be playing Fiji anyway, so it doesn't even matter. But no, I'm going to pick South Africa. That will be the end of this video. Um, thank you guys so much for watching. Let me know what you think of my predictions. Like, I've, I've tried to be, uh, I'm, I'm, I'm not being biased with these selections. I'm just picking off the top of my head and I'm, like I said, I'm picking early this week. Before I've seen the lineups, would I change my mind with any of the lineups? Maybe. But I haven't got that luxury. I'm traveling. Uh, thursday and friday I might make one more extra video previewing it if you'd like to see that. Let me know Otherwise, we'll do another one on strength condition If you want any of the stuff on strength condition will be in the the links will be in the description Below if you haven't already, um, and you've watched still now give this video a thumbs up really does help spread it out to other rugby lovers I'll see you down in the comments below. Let me know what you thought. Thank you guys for watching. I'll see you in the next one